Aviation Marketing Intelligence

We used to joke about this. We still do actually, but we’re fixing that last part. We might be right and frequently ignored, but we’ll get paid to stay in the corner with the geeky kids that quietly build a future that affords better sleep.

Why this post today? Maybe it was the news that Eclipse is laying off folks which reminded me of the Flighttime debacle of 2002. You have to love an industry that is driven by emotions, financial obscurity and whipped into a frenzy by magicians who bring you great flying things & programs. When Flighttime went bust in 2002 it was a classic case of the “double trouble bubble” kafuffle.

Bubble 1: You have a deposit with us? Awesome… thanks for the working capital.

Bubble 2: We owe you money? We’ll get it to you soon, we just need to keep some of it for payroll now, see you next week though, ok buddy?

A potential way to approach the madness, is to think of the private aviation industry undergoing some type of “truth and reconciliation” South Africa style: In other words, you’ve all been bad, you lied, you stole, etc. There are bodies everywhere, the infrastructure needs work, but let’s bury the hatchet, ok? We won’t march you to the gallows if you could just admit past transgressions, see the light, and move on.

VLJ Manufacturers: Really, think about it. Is there really a demand for your creation and can you see it through to fruition? And why is yours so much better than the other 86 ideas?

Air Taxi Whackos: Can we stop harping on our proprietary technology, secret sauce and other magician style dances and spells you cast on your investors? Alternatively, teach us how to lie “the right way” to raise the “right amount of money.” (Just be warned: Everytime I open an excel sheet now, I have some type of Pavlovian vomit reflex… once you get over the barf odor, we can start plugging in numbers and assumptions.)
Whether your passion is making aircraft or flying them, there is only one thing that will save your ass at the end of the day: VOLUME. (And Vern, I mean actual volume, not projected volume.) Volume, as proven by Herb Kelleher and early Southwest folks, is hard to pull off, requires a lot of work, financial risk, etc. And if everything goes well, you have a mediocre investment that generates mediocre returns.

That is the beauty of aviation - if everything goes really well, the planets align and your rabbit’s foot does its thing, then you build a business that is far less appealing to an investor than that early subscription to Google pre-IPO they finagled or that mining company in Alberta - you know that one that takes oil out of sand.

Which brings us to “why we do it.” Flying is fun, cool, neat and when you go the airport…well it isn’t so fun anymore. Not so for private planes, however, and that is where the next frontier lies. Little planes that are actually run like taxis, bring home the bacon (for the driver, cab company and the $600K medallion) and are part of a scalable, vibrant and real economy.

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